-
Effective vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 in Korea: a modeling study
-
Youngsuk Ko, Kyong Ran Peck, Yae-Jean Kim, Dong-Hyun Kim, Eunok Jung
-
Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023084. Published online September 7, 2023
-
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023084
-
-
 Abstract
Summary
 PDF Supplementary Material
-
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
In Korea, as immunity levels of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the population acquired through previous infections and vaccinations have decreased, booster vaccinations have emerged as a necessary measure to control new outbreaks. The objective of this study was to identify the most suitable vaccination strategy for controlling the surge in COVID-19 cases.
METHODS A mathematical model was developed to concurrently evaluate the immunity levels induced by vaccines and infections. This model was then employed to investigate the potential for future resurgence and the possibility of control through the use of vaccines and antivirals.
RESULTS As of May 11, 2023, if the current epidemic trend persists without further vaccination efforts, a peak in resurgence is anticipated to occur around mid-October of the same year. Under the most favorable circumstances, the peak number of severely hospitalized patients could be reduced by 43% (n=480) compared to the scenario without vaccine intervention (n=849). Depending on outbreak trends and vaccination strategies, the best timing for vaccination in terms of minimizing this peak varies from May 2023 to August 2023.
CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that if the epidemic persist, the best timing for administering vaccinations would need to be earlier than currently outlined in the Korean plan. It is imperative to continue monitoring outbreak trends, as this is key to determining the best vaccination timing in order to manage potential future surges.
-
Summary
Korean summary
본 연구는 자연감염 혹은 백신으로 획득된 면역의 저하를 고려한 수리모델을 사용하여 COVID-19에 대한 백신 접종 전략 분석 결과를 보인다. 시뮬레이션 결과는 추가 백신 접종이 없을 경우 재유행의 정점이 800명을 넘을 것임을 나타내며, 적절한 시기에 백신을 접종하면 최대 재원 위중증환자수를 약 40%까지 줄일 수 있음을 보인다. 본 연구는 확진자 추세의 지속적인 모니터링이 백신 접종의 적정 시기를 결정하고 미래 COVID-19의 재유행을 효과적으로 관리하는 데 필요하다는 점을 강조한다.
Key Message
Our study analyzes strategies for COVID-19 through vaccination, using a mathematical model considering waning immunity from past infections and vaccinations. Results indicate that a resurgence peak would reach more than 800 without further vaccination, and suggest vaccination in proper timing can reduce the peak size of administered severe patients by up to approximately 40%. The study emphasizes the importance of ongoing monitoring of outbreak trends to manage vaccination timing and future COVID-19 surges effectively.
|
KSE
